Kuraklık koşullarında uygun sulama ve tarım tekniklerinin üreticiler tarafından uygulanabilirliği: Ceyhan Havzası örneği
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2019
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Ege Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Nerede ve ne zaman meydana geleceği belli olmayan ve insan faaliyetleri sonucu, etkisi günden güne artan kuraklık, tarımda her yıl büyük miktarlarda kayba neden olmaktadır. İklim değişikliği nedeniyle, kapsadığı alan ve etkilediği insan sayısı artan kuraklığa karşı alınması gereken önlemlerin belirlenmesi, hem ekonomik hem de ekolojik anlamda büyük öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada tarımda yaşanan kuraklığın etkilerinin azaltılması açısından çiftçilerin düşünce ve davranışlarının belirlenmesi ve kuraklığa karşı alınacak önlemlerle ilgili ortaya konulacak politikalar için ödeme istekliliğinin hesaplanması amaçlanmıştır. Araştırma, Ceyhan Havzası'nda yürütülmüştür. Havzada tarımsal üretimin en yoğun olduğu ve yağış yetersizliğinin bulunduğu Afşin, Elbistan ve Ekinözü ilçelerinde 162 çiftçi ile yüz yüze anket çalışması gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmada, Ceyhan Havzası için Standart Yağış İndeksi yöntemiyle yapılan kuraklık analizinde, seçilen ilçelerin kuraklık açısından risk altında olduğu belirlenmiştir. Anket yoluyla elde edilen verilerin analizinde; Faktör Analizi, Kümeleme Analizi, Sıralı Probit Model, Seçim Denemesi, Koşullu Logit Model yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Faktör analizinden beş farklı boyut elde edildikten sonra çiftçiler üç ayrı segmente ayrılmış ve "karamsar grup" adlı segmentte bulunanlar, kuraklıkla ilgili politikalarda odaklanılması gereken çiftçiler olarak belirlenmiştir. Sıralı Probit Model sonuçlarına göre, çiftçilerin yaşı, eğitimi, toplam gelirin içinde tarımın payı ve susuz arazi miktarı arttıkça, kuraklıktan etkilenme derecesi de artmaktadır. Seçim Denemesi'nde kullanılan Koşullu Logit Model sonuçlarına göre, kuraklığın etkilerinin azaltılması açısından uygulanacak farklı politika alternatifleri arasından, çiftçilerin, kuraklığa dayanıklı bitki çeşitleri için tek seferlik 109,09 TL, basınçlı sulamaya geçişin sağlanması için için ise tek seferlik 98,03 TL ödemeye razı oldukları belirlenmiştir. Toprağın korunması ile ilgili uygulamalar modelde anlamlı olmamasına rağmen ödeme istekliliği 23,68 TL olarak hesaplanmıştır.
Drought, where and when it will occur is uncertain and whose impact is increasing day by day as a result of human activities, causes large amounts of loss in agriculture every year. The determination of the measures to be taken against drought, of which the area covered due to climate change and the number of people affected are increasing, is of a great importance both economically and ecologically. In this study, it is aimed to determine the thoughts and behaviors of the farmers in terms of reducing the effects of drought in agriculture and to calculate the willingness to pay of the farmers for the policies to be put forward regarding the measures to be taken against the drought. The research was conducted in Ceyhan Basin. Face-to-face surveys were conducted with 162 farmers in Afşin, Elbistan and Ekinözü districts where agricultural production is the most intense and rainfall is insufficent in the basin. In the study, in the drought analysis made by Standardized Precipitation Index method for Ceyhan Basin, it was determined that selected districts were at risk for drought. In the analysis of the data obtained through the survey; Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Ordered Probit Model, Choice Experiment Method, Conditional Logit Model were used. After five different dimensions were obtained from the factor analysis, the farmers were divided into three separate segments and those in the segment of "pessimist group" were identified as the ones that should be focused on drought policies. According to the results of Ordered Probit Model, as age, education, the share of agriculture in total income and the amount of unirrigated land increase, degree of being affected by drought also increases. According to the model results used in the Choice Experiment, among the different policy alternatives to be applied in order to reduce the effects of drought, it is determined that farmers are willing to pay one-off 109.09 TL for the selection of drought-resistant plant varieties, farmers were willing to pay one-off 98.03 TL for pressurised irrigation methods. Although the practices related to soil protection were not significant in the model, willingness to pay was calculated as one-off 23.68 TL.
Drought, where and when it will occur is uncertain and whose impact is increasing day by day as a result of human activities, causes large amounts of loss in agriculture every year. The determination of the measures to be taken against drought, of which the area covered due to climate change and the number of people affected are increasing, is of a great importance both economically and ecologically. In this study, it is aimed to determine the thoughts and behaviors of the farmers in terms of reducing the effects of drought in agriculture and to calculate the willingness to pay of the farmers for the policies to be put forward regarding the measures to be taken against the drought. The research was conducted in Ceyhan Basin. Face-to-face surveys were conducted with 162 farmers in Afşin, Elbistan and Ekinözü districts where agricultural production is the most intense and rainfall is insufficent in the basin. In the study, in the drought analysis made by Standardized Precipitation Index method for Ceyhan Basin, it was determined that selected districts were at risk for drought. In the analysis of the data obtained through the survey; Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Ordered Probit Model, Choice Experiment Method, Conditional Logit Model were used. After five different dimensions were obtained from the factor analysis, the farmers were divided into three separate segments and those in the segment of "pessimist group" were identified as the ones that should be focused on drought policies. According to the results of Ordered Probit Model, as age, education, the share of agriculture in total income and the amount of unirrigated land increase, degree of being affected by drought also increases. According to the model results used in the Choice Experiment, among the different policy alternatives to be applied in order to reduce the effects of drought, it is determined that farmers are willing to pay one-off 109.09 TL for the selection of drought-resistant plant varieties, farmers were willing to pay one-off 98.03 TL for pressurised irrigation methods. Although the practices related to soil protection were not significant in the model, willingness to pay was calculated as one-off 23.68 TL.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kuraklık, Tarım, SPI, Faktör Analizi, Kümeleme Analizi Seçim Denemesi, Koşullu Logit Modeli, Ödeme İstekliliği, Sıralı Probit, Drought, Agriculture, Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Choice Experiment, Conditional Logit Model, Willingness To Pay, Ordered Probit
