Soğuk Savaş sonrası Güney Kafkasya'da jeopolitik mücadeleler: Türkiye-Rusya-İran
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Tarih
2024
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Yayıncı
Ege Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Tarihsel süreç içinde Güney Kafkasya, çevresinde var olan büyük imparatorlukların kenar bölgesinde yer almış; stratejik mevkisi nedeniyle etrafındaki güç merkezleri arasında sürekli olarak bir rekabet alanı olmuş ve olmaya da devam etmektedir. Osmanlı Devleti ve İran arasındaki bölgesel rekabete 18. yüzyılda Rus Devleti de dâhil olmuştur ve bölgedeki güç denklemleri 19. yüzyıl ile birlikte değişim göstermeye başlamış, bu süreçten itibaren Güney Kafkasya coğrafyasında Osmanlı ve İran hâkimiyeti düşüşe geçerken, Rus nüfuzu kendisini güçlü derecede göstermeye başlamıştır. Çarlık Rusya'sı ve Sovyetler döneminde bölge Rus etkisi altında iken, Soğuk Savaş'ın bitimi ile beraber bölge dinamiklerinde de önemli değişiklikler yaşanmıştır. Bölgede Sovyet etkisinin jeopolitik geri çekilmesi ile birlikte tarihte bölge ile yakından ilgilenmiş devletler için bölge ile ilişkileri geliştirmenin yolu açılmıştır. Kaos ve çatışma iklimiyle sürekli uluslararası konjonktürün ana sahnesinde yer alan ve bünyesindeki ülkelere bu kaotik ortamla başa çıkma zorunluluğu yükleyen Güney Kafkasya bölgesi her zaman diliminde bölge ile ilgili her aktör tarafından jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik potansiyeli yüksek bir mekân olarak görülmüştür. Güç mekanizmalarını harekete geçiren, bölgesel ve küresel güç denklemlerinin vazgeçilmezi olan bu stratejik karakteristiği, bölgenin hâkim kimliğinin belirlenmesinde, şekillenmesinde ve bölgesel siyasetinde ana rol oynamaktadır. Jeopolitiğin böylesine dinamik olduğu bir coğrafik mekânda Soğuk Savaş sonrası Güney Kafkasya bölgesel istikrarı ve jeopolitiği arasındaki ilişki doğasının saptanması çalışmamızın ana çerçevesini çizerken, Güney Kafkasya jeopolitik sahasında güç mücadeleleri Türkiye, Rusya ve İran olmak üzere bölgeye komşu devletler penceresinden analiz edilecektir. Bölgesel güç ekosisteminde dinamik olarak boy gösteren Türkiye, Rusya ve İran'ın bölgeye yönelik jeopolitik hamleleri, aktörlerin etnik temelli çatışmalardaki tutumları perspektiflerinden irdelenecek ve "Soğuk Savaş sonrasında bu devletlerin bölge üzerindeki güç hesaplamaları dolayısıyla birbirlerine işbirliği ya da rekabet ile bağlanarak bölge jeopolitik karakteristiğinde meydana getirdiği fırsatlar ve risklerin bölgesel barış ve istikrarın sürdürülebilirliğine olan etkisi nedir?" sorusuna cevap arama ışığında tez sürdürülecektir. Araştırmada nicel araştırma yaklaşımı benimsenerek, araştırma problemine tarihsel araştırma ve nedensel karşılaştırma yöntemi ile yanıt aranacaktır. Güney Kafkasya bölgesinin sahip olduğu doğal kaynaklar, jeopolitik ve jeostratejik artıları ötekilerin karnesine artı olarak yazılırken, bölge devletlerini ise istikrarsızlığa ve ateş hattına sürüklemiştir. Soğuk Savaş sonrası bağımsızlığını yeni kazanmış devletler etnik temelli kıvılcımlar ile dizginlenmiş, kontrol altına alınmış ve bölgede adeta bölge devletlerinin aleyhine bir "istikrarlı istikrarsızlık" dengesi kurulmuştur. Yıllardır süregelen, katmanlaşmış bu güç dengesi Karabağ Zaferi ile birlikte stratejik değişime uğrayarak bölgesel istikrar ve barış için kapı aralamaya başlamıştır. Bölgesel barış ışığının geçmişe kıyasla bu kadar canlı sezilebildiği bu dönemde Rusya, Türkiye ve İran barış ortamını destekleyecek ya da engelleyecek ana oyunculardır. Üç ana oyuncunun bölgedeki hamleleri fırsatlar ve riskleri beraberinde getirmiştir. Geçmişten günümüze riskler yoğun bir şekilde açığa çıkarken, Karabağ Zaferi ile birlikte bölge için fırsatlar da hareketlenmiştir.
The South Caucasus in the historical process, which has been located on the periphery of major empires, and due to its strategic position, it has continuously been a field of competition among the surrounding power centers and continues to be so. The Russian Empire joined the regional competition between the Ottoman Empire and Iran in the 18th century, and with the 19th century, the power dynamics in the region began to shift. From this period onwards, while Ottoman and Iranian dominance in the South Caucasus region began to decline, Russian influence started to manifest itself strongly. While the region was under Russian influence during the tsarist Russia and the Soviet era, with the end of the Cold War, significant changes occurred in the regional dynamics. With the geopolitical retreat of Soviet influence in the region, the way to develop relations with the region has been opened for states that are closely interested in the region in history. The South Caucasus region, which is constantly on the main stage of the international conjuncture with its chaos and conflict climate and places the obligation on its countries to deal with this chaotic environment, where it has always been seen as a place with high geopolitical and geo-economic potential by every actor related to the region. This strategic characteristic, which activates power mechanisms and is an indispensable part of regional and global power equations, plays a main role in determining, shaping, and influencing the region's dominant identity and regional politics. In a geographical place where geopolitics is so dynamic, the determination of the relationship between the post-Cold War regional stability and geopolitics of the South Caucasus forms the main framework of our study. In this context, power struggles in the South Caucasus geopolitical arena will be analyzed through the lens of neighboring states—Türkiye, Russia, and Iran. The geopolitical moves of Türkiye, Russia and Iran, which are dynamic in the regional power ecosystem, will be examined from the perspectives of the actors' attitudes in ethnic-based conflicts and "What is the impact on the sustainability of regional peace and stability of the opportunities and risks that these states have created in the geopolitical characteristics of the region by connecting to each other through cooperation or competition due to calculations of power over the region after the Cold War?" the thesis will be continued in the light of the search to decipher the answer to the question. In the study, a quantitative research approach will be adopted, and the research problem will be addressed using historical research and causal-comparative methods. While the natural resources, and the geopolitical and geostrategic advantages of the South Caucasus region are counted as plus on the report card of others, the regional states have been drawn into instability and the line of fire. The states that have just gained their independence after the Cold War have been reined in by ethnic-based sparks, taken under control, and a balance of 'stable instability' has been established in the region, almost to the detriment of the regional states. The longstanding, layered balance of power has undergone a strategic shift with the Karabakh Victory, beginning to open the door for regional stability and peace. In this period, where the light of regional peace can be sensed so vividly compared to the past, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran are the key players that will support or obstruct the peace environment. Policies of the three main players in the region have brought opportunities and risks to the region. While risks have been revealed intensively from past to present, opportunities for the area have also come out more actively with the Karabakh Victory.
The South Caucasus in the historical process, which has been located on the periphery of major empires, and due to its strategic position, it has continuously been a field of competition among the surrounding power centers and continues to be so. The Russian Empire joined the regional competition between the Ottoman Empire and Iran in the 18th century, and with the 19th century, the power dynamics in the region began to shift. From this period onwards, while Ottoman and Iranian dominance in the South Caucasus region began to decline, Russian influence started to manifest itself strongly. While the region was under Russian influence during the tsarist Russia and the Soviet era, with the end of the Cold War, significant changes occurred in the regional dynamics. With the geopolitical retreat of Soviet influence in the region, the way to develop relations with the region has been opened for states that are closely interested in the region in history. The South Caucasus region, which is constantly on the main stage of the international conjuncture with its chaos and conflict climate and places the obligation on its countries to deal with this chaotic environment, where it has always been seen as a place with high geopolitical and geo-economic potential by every actor related to the region. This strategic characteristic, which activates power mechanisms and is an indispensable part of regional and global power equations, plays a main role in determining, shaping, and influencing the region's dominant identity and regional politics. In a geographical place where geopolitics is so dynamic, the determination of the relationship between the post-Cold War regional stability and geopolitics of the South Caucasus forms the main framework of our study. In this context, power struggles in the South Caucasus geopolitical arena will be analyzed through the lens of neighboring states—Türkiye, Russia, and Iran. The geopolitical moves of Türkiye, Russia and Iran, which are dynamic in the regional power ecosystem, will be examined from the perspectives of the actors' attitudes in ethnic-based conflicts and "What is the impact on the sustainability of regional peace and stability of the opportunities and risks that these states have created in the geopolitical characteristics of the region by connecting to each other through cooperation or competition due to calculations of power over the region after the Cold War?" the thesis will be continued in the light of the search to decipher the answer to the question. In the study, a quantitative research approach will be adopted, and the research problem will be addressed using historical research and causal-comparative methods. While the natural resources, and the geopolitical and geostrategic advantages of the South Caucasus region are counted as plus on the report card of others, the regional states have been drawn into instability and the line of fire. The states that have just gained their independence after the Cold War have been reined in by ethnic-based sparks, taken under control, and a balance of 'stable instability' has been established in the region, almost to the detriment of the regional states. The longstanding, layered balance of power has undergone a strategic shift with the Karabakh Victory, beginning to open the door for regional stability and peace. In this period, where the light of regional peace can be sensed so vividly compared to the past, Russia, Türkiye, and Iran are the key players that will support or obstruct the peace environment. Policies of the three main players in the region have brought opportunities and risks to the region. While risks have been revealed intensively from past to present, opportunities for the area have also come out more actively with the Karabakh Victory.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Soğuk Savaş, Güney Kafkasya, Jeopolitik, Türkiye, Rusya, İran., Cold War, South Caucasus, Geopolitics, Russia, Iran.
