Gri sistem teorisi ve enerji tüketim modellemesinde bir uygulama
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2021
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Ege Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu tez çalışmasında GVMCT ile adlandırılan gri Verhulst modeline sabit terimin eklenmesi ile oluşturulan model üzerinde çalışılmıştır. Modele ilişkin diferansiyel denklem çözülerek gri tahmin denklemi elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen tahmin denkleminin performansının değerlendirilmesi amacıyla enerji alanında bir uygulama çalışması yapılmıştır. Konut Sektörünün Tükettiği Toplam Enerji (TERS), Ticari Sektörün Tükettiği Toplam Enerji (TECS) ve Sanayi Sektörünün Tükettiği Toplam Enerji (TEIS) değişkenlerine ilişkin veri setleri incelenmiştir. Veri setinin uygun olması nedeniyle ilgili değişkenler için hem zaman serileri analizi kullanılarak hem de gri modelleme (GM (1,1) modeli, Gri Verhulst Modeli ve GVMCT modeli) kullanılarak çeşitli tahmin denklemleri oluşturulmuştur. Elde edilen tahmin denklemlerinin performansı MSE, MAE ve RMSE performans ölçülerine göre kıyaslanmıştır. Elde edilen tahmin denklemleri kullanılarak iki dönem için öngörü yapılmış ve gerçek değerler ile kıyaslanmıştır
In this thesis, the model created by adding the constant term to the grey Verhulst model called GVMCT has been studied. The grey estimation equation has been obtained by solving the differential equation of the model. In order to evaluate the performance of the obtained estimation equation, an application study has been carried out in the field of energy. Data sets related to Total Energy Consumed by the Residential Sector (TERS), Total Energy Consumed by the Commercial Sector (TECS) and Total Energy Consumed by the Industrial Sector (TEIS) variables have been examined. Due to the convenience of the data set, various estimation equations have been created for the related variables using both time series analysis and grey modeling (GM (1,1) model, Grey Verhulst Model and GVMCT model). The performance of the estimation equations obtained has been compared according to MSE, MAE and RMSE performance measures. Forecasts have been made for two periods using the obtained estimation equations and compared with the actual values.
In this thesis, the model created by adding the constant term to the grey Verhulst model called GVMCT has been studied. The grey estimation equation has been obtained by solving the differential equation of the model. In order to evaluate the performance of the obtained estimation equation, an application study has been carried out in the field of energy. Data sets related to Total Energy Consumed by the Residential Sector (TERS), Total Energy Consumed by the Commercial Sector (TECS) and Total Energy Consumed by the Industrial Sector (TEIS) variables have been examined. Due to the convenience of the data set, various estimation equations have been created for the related variables using both time series analysis and grey modeling (GM (1,1) model, Grey Verhulst Model and GVMCT model). The performance of the estimation equations obtained has been compared according to MSE, MAE and RMSE performance measures. Forecasts have been made for two periods using the obtained estimation equations and compared with the actual values.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
İstatistik, Statistics
