Yazar "Catik, A. Nazif" seçeneğine göre listele

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    An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey
    (Elsevier Science Bv, 2013) Catik, A. Nazif; Onder, A. Ozlem
    In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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    A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS IN FORECASTING TURKISH INFLATION
    (Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2012) Catik, A. Nazif; Karacuka, Mehmet
    This paper analyses inflation forecasting power of artificial neural networks with alternative univariate time series models for Turkey. The forecasting accuracy of the models is compared in terms of both static and dynamic forecasts for the period between 1982:1 and 2009:12. We find that at earlier forecast horizons conventional models, especially ARFIMA and ARIMA, provide better one-step ahead forecasting performance. However, unobserved components model turns out to be the best performer in terms of dynamic forecasts. The superiority of the unobserved components model suggests that inflation in Turkey has time varying pattern and conventional models are not able to track underlying trend of inflation in the long run.
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    Consumer choice and local network effects in mobile telecommunications in Turkey
    (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2013) Karacuka, Mehmet; Catik, A. Nazif; Haucap, Justus
    The aim of this paper is to analyze the extent of network effects in mobile telecommunications in Turkey, and to identify other determinants of consumer choice based on consumer survey data. This study shows that there are regional disparities in the adoption of network services in Turkey, the attractiveness of the different networks varies for consumers between different regions. The results show that local network effects are significant for consumer choice. This finding means that consumers are more likely to be affected by the choices of other people within their local area than by the overall size of a network. Furthermore, local network effects also outweigh macro network effects at least in Turkey. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach
    (M E Sharpe Inc, 2011) Catik, A. Nazif; Onder, A. Ozlem
    This paper investigates the existence of oil pass-through to inflation for Turkey covering the period February 1996-May 2007. Oil price-augmented Phillips curves are estimated with linear and Markov regime-switching models. Markov regime-switching models reveal the asymmetric structure of oil pass-through and indicate the existence of two different regimes characterized as the high- and the low-inflation periods. We find evidence for asymmetric oil pass-through in the high- inflation regime for headline and food- and energy-excluded inflation measures. Our results suggest that Jarque-Bera core inflation is not affected by oil price variations under either inflationary environment. Hence, we suggest the Jarque-Bera indicator as an intermediate target in the analysis of the future trend of inflation.
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    IS THERE ANY TIME-VARYING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FISCAL AND TRADE DEFICITS IN TURKEY?
    (Univ Economics-Prague, 2016) Gok, Baris; Catik, A. Nazif
    In this article we analyse the evolution of the relationship between budget and trade deficits in Turkey covering the period 1985:1 to 2013:4. The structural break tests suggest the existence of a regime shift after the severe 2001 crisis. Time-varying responses obtained from the TVP-VAR model up to 2003 support the Keynesian view by providing evidence in favour of twin deficits, whereas the remaining responses suggest the remarkable divergence between fiscal and trade deficits.
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    A META-FRONTIER APPROACH TO MEASURE PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN AFFILIATED FIRMS
    (Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2013) Tunca, Halil; Karacuka, Mehmet; Catik, A. Nazif
    This paper aims to evaluate the performance of foreign affiliated and domestic firms in Turkish manufacturing subsectors covering the period 1992 and 2001. Due to the heterogeneity between domestic and foreign affiliated firms in terms of technology level, we construct a meta-frontier model to measure relative efficiency and technology gap ratios (TGR's) of domestic and foreign affiliated firms. We find that technical efficiencies of foreign affiliated firms are higher than domestic firms, and display a stable pattern during the investigation period. However; technology gap ratios indicate the existence of a negative relationship between the TGR's and technical efficiency of the firms in domestic subsectors. This means that technically efficient firms are in fact using the low level of technology. However the results do not indicate any significant relationship between the technical efficiency and TGR's of foreign affiliated firms.
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    A META-FRONTIER APPROACH TO MEASURE PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN AFFILIATED FIRMS
    (Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2013) Tunca, Halil; Karacuka, Mehmet; Catik, A. Nazif
    This paper aims to evaluate the performance of foreign affiliated and domestic firms in Turkish manufacturing subsectors covering the period 1992 and 2001. Due to the heterogeneity between domestic and foreign affiliated firms in terms of technology level, we construct a meta-frontier model to measure relative efficiency and technology gap ratios (TGR's) of domestic and foreign affiliated firms. We find that technical efficiencies of foreign affiliated firms are higher than domestic firms, and display a stable pattern during the investigation period. However; technology gap ratios indicate the existence of a negative relationship between the TGR's and technical efficiency of the firms in domestic subsectors. This means that technically efficient firms are in fact using the low level of technology. However the results do not indicate any significant relationship between the technical efficiency and TGR's of foreign affiliated firms.
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    The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil-gas stock returns of the fragile five countries
    (Springer, 2021) Kosedagli, Begum Yurteri; Kisla, Gul Huyuguzel; Catik, A. Nazif
    This study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil-gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil-gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil-gas sector returns varies across time and countries.