An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2013
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Elsevier Science Bv
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Output, Oil shocks, Inflation, Threshold VAR model
Kaynak
Economic Modelling
WoS Q Değeri
Q3
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
33
