Forecasting inflation in emerging markets by using the Phillips curve and alternative time series models

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dc.contributor.authorOnder, AO
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-27T19:04:48Z
dc.date.available2019-10-27T19:04:48Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.departmentEge Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the Phillips curve to forecast inflation in a high inflation emerging market country by taking Turkey as a case. For this purpose, we compare the forecasting performance of the Phillips curve with alternative time series models, namely, the univariate ARIMA model, vector autoregression and vector error correction model, and a naive no-change model. The data pertains to the quarterly inflation rate in Turkey for the 1987-2001 period. The results show that inflation forecasts obtained from the Phillips curve are found to be more accurate than forecasts based on other macroeconomic variables. The remaining models outperform the "no-change model" in most of the cases.en_US
dc.identifier.endpage82en_US
dc.identifier.issn1540-496X
dc.identifier.issn1540-496Xen_US
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.startpage71en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11454/38238
dc.identifier.volume40en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000220452600005en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherM E Sharpe Incen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEmerging Markets Finance and Tradeen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectforecastingen_US
dc.subjectinflationen_US
dc.subjectPhillips curveen_US
dc.titleForecasting inflation in emerging markets by using the Phillips curve and alternative time series modelsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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