Expected Effects of Climate Change on Organic Agriculture in Turkey

In Turkey organic agriculture started in mid-1980s with the demand coming from the enlarging European market. This impulse resulted in converting traditional Turkish crops as dried fruit and nuts that were already grown as low-input into organic management. These commodities still play a major role in Turkish organic production and export. Turkey being a Mediterranean country is reported to be severely affected by climate change in all scenarios. The impact will vary according to the regions. High temperatures and water shortages will be the major problems of the west, southwest and southeast. The east will have milder winter climates that will affect the snow melt and river flows. These effects will get stronger towards the second (2041-2070) and third (2071-2100) periods. Organic agriculture is practiced in all regions of Turkey mainly based upon the existing ecological and socio-economic factors. Changes in climate will affect perennials the most whether be cultivated fruit species or harvested from nature. The paper evaluates the expected effects of climate change on Turkish organic agriculture at regional level based upon common findings revealed by different scenarios.