The forecast of the future production amounts of the some fish species being cultivated in Turkey
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2011
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışma, Türkiye de yaygın olarak yetiştiriciliği yapılan Çipura (Sparus aurata), Levrek (Dicentrarchus labrax), Alabalık (Oncorhynchus mykiss) ve Sazan (Cyprinus carpio) gibi bazı balık türlerinin gelecekteki üretim miktarları 2008-2030 yılına kadar tahmin edilmiştir. 2030 yılı Birleşmiş Milletler Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü ve Avrupa Birliği sonuçlarına paralellik sağlaması açısından esas alınmıştır. Bu amaçla, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’nun 1986-2007 yıllarına ait Çipura, Levrek, Alabalık, Sazan üretim miktarları ve ilaveten Türkiye toplam su ürünleri yetiştiricilik miktarları kullanılmıştır. Bu verilere Genstat for Teaching Paket Programı kullanılarak Zaman Serileri Analiz Yöntemiyle otoregresif modellemesi yapılmıştır. Normal dağılıma uymayan verilere Box-Cox dönüşümü uygulanmıştır. Otokorelasyon katsayıları hesaplanmış, bu katsayıların %5 seviyesinde istatistik açıdan anlamlılığı kontrol edilmiş ve kararlı olup olmadıkları test edilmiştir. Sonuçta, 2030 yılı için Çipura, Levrek, Alabalık ve Sazan türleri için tespit edilen olası tahmin değerleri sırasıyla 70015, 88050, 126272 ve 1391 tondur. Türkiye toplam yetiştiricilik olası tahmin değeri ise 284337 ton/yıl olarak bulunmuştur.
In this study, current output of some fi sh species which are commonly cultivated in Turkey, such as Seabream (Sparus aurata), Seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Carp (Cyprinus carpio) is estimated for the future until 2008-2030. the year 2030 is taken as base since it provides parallelelism with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the results of European Union. Current output of seabream, seabass, salmon, carp of the Turkish Statistical Institute of 1986-2007 and additionally, total aquaculture cultivation extents of Turkey were used for this purpose. Using the Genstat for Teaching Package Program on these data, autoregressive modeling was made with the Method of Time Series Analysis. Box-Cox transformation was applied for the data which do not comply with the normal distribution. Autocorrelation coeffi cients were calculated, the statistical signifi cance of these coeffi cients were controlled at the level of 5% and tested whether they were stable or not. As a consequence, the probable estimation values determined for the species of Seabream, Seabass, Salmon and Carp are respectively, 70015, 88050, 126272 and 1391 ton for 2030. the total probable cultivation estimation value of Turkey was found as 284337 ton/year.
In this study, current output of some fi sh species which are commonly cultivated in Turkey, such as Seabream (Sparus aurata), Seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax), Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Carp (Cyprinus carpio) is estimated for the future until 2008-2030. the year 2030 is taken as base since it provides parallelelism with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the results of European Union. Current output of seabream, seabass, salmon, carp of the Turkish Statistical Institute of 1986-2007 and additionally, total aquaculture cultivation extents of Turkey were used for this purpose. Using the Genstat for Teaching Package Program on these data, autoregressive modeling was made with the Method of Time Series Analysis. Box-Cox transformation was applied for the data which do not comply with the normal distribution. Autocorrelation coeffi cients were calculated, the statistical signifi cance of these coeffi cients were controlled at the level of 5% and tested whether they were stable or not. As a consequence, the probable estimation values determined for the species of Seabream, Seabass, Salmon and Carp are respectively, 70015, 88050, 126272 and 1391 ton for 2030. the total probable cultivation estimation value of Turkey was found as 284337 ton/year.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Veterinerlik
Kaynak
Kafkas Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
17
Sayı
1
