Analysis of Factors Affecting The Gold Prices Through Var Model: 2005-2015 Period

Both gold is a mostly preferred investment instrument and is easily influenced by economic instability and politic conditions. It's aimed to examine which economic factors affecting the price of gold in Turkey using the vector autoregression (VAR) models that is time series method and to reveal the dynamic and stable relations between variables. For this purpose, we obtained Borsa Istanbul (BI) gold prices, exchange rate, interest rate, consumer price index (CPI) and BIST 100 index, the ounce prices of gold and oil price variables. Monthly data between 2005:01-2015:04 has been analysed with VAR model depending on stationarity and cointegration tests. According to the results of the analyses, while the largest shares of the variables are ounce and oil prices, the lowest is interest rate in future period prediction error variance for BI gold prices. Besides, one standart deviation shock on ounce prices of gold creates the most response on BI gold prices and the shock on oil prices create the response on exchange rate and ounce prices.