Predicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the World

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dc.contributor.authorTsallis, Constantino
dc.contributor.authorTirnakli, Ugur
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-01T12:01:11Z
dc.date.available2020-12-01T12:01:11Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentEge Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe official data for the time evolution of active cases of COVID-19 pandemics around the world are available online. For all countries, a peak has been either observed (China and South Korea) or is expected in the near future. the approximate dates and heights of those peaks have important epidemiological implications. Inspired by similar complex behavior of volumes of transactions of stocks at the NYSE and NASDAQ, we propose aq-statistical functional form that appears to describe satisfactorily the available data for all countries. Consistently, predictions of the dates and heights of those peaks in severely affected countries become possible unless efficient treatments or vaccines, or sensible modifications of the adopted epidemiological strategies, emerge.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPqNational Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq); FaperjCarlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipWe have benefitted from useful remarks by E. P. Borges, R. Dickman and P. M. C. Oliveira as well as from partial support by CNPq and Faperj (Brazilian Agencies).en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fphy.2020.00217
dc.identifier.issn2296-424X
dc.identifier.issn2296-424Xen_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85086445183en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.00217
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11454/62342
dc.identifier.volume8en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000542220300001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherFrontiers Media Saen_US
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Physicsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectpandemicsen_US
dc.subjectcomplex systemsen_US
dc.subjectnon-extensive statistical mechanicsen_US
dc.subjectepidemiologyen_US
dc.titlePredicting COVID-19 Peaks Around the Worlden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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